Wimbledon preview

THE FAVORITES!


World #1 Rafael Nadal…first and foremost RIP. Rafa Nadal is currently the best player in the world and had an unbelievable 2008. But as SE Hinton wrote…”That was then, but this is now. Nadal won practically every tournament imaginable last year and accumulated what can be described as Tony Montana money and points. He consistently, got in people’s heads and infuriated players. As I have written previously, playing against Nadal is like playing against a brick wall which is an immoveable object that cannot be defeated. He is as fast as Usain Bolt, as strong as Lebron James, and as mentally tough as Tiger Woods. Nadal’s game is predicated upon grinding, running balls down, and making an opponent win a point multiple times before truly winning the point. That is, he will dig deep and return a ball (often times aggressively and strategically) to his opponent that under normal circumstances would be good enough to win the point. And, then the opponent gets somewhat frustrated and tries to hard, errors, or loses the advantage. Nadal’s grinding style while great and dominant, takes its toll on the body. This leads us to Nadal’s knee problems and the reported tendinitis in his quadriceps which will keep him out of Wimbledon the most historic tournament in professional tennis.



Next, we have the most skilled player in the world and maybe ever, Roger Federer (Fed). Fed has an unbelievable forehand, incredible variety, superior serving ability, and a fantastic attacking game. There is not one part of Fed’s game that is not good or even average. Everything that he does on the tennis court is above average and some things like his forehand are superior.

Fed’s streaks of reaching 20 consecutive semifinals in Grand Slam events, and the finals of 14 of the last 15 majors, are the tennis equivalent of Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hit streak. Say word kid. It simply won’t be broken for a long long time. There are too many injuries, too much parity on the ATP tour, and too much to ask for one to be THAT consistent.

Fed is unquestionably the favorite to win the tournament due to his ability, the surface, and his name. Playing Fed on this surface is one of the more difficult tasks. His name is on the trophy 5 our of the last 6 times and everyone knows it.

In addition to that, while Nadal played well in 2008, Federer has arguably played better since August of 2008. Granted, Nadal won more tournaments that Federer since that time, but Fed won 2 of the last 3 majors and Nadal lost to Fed on his home turf in the Madrid Master Series, and finally lost at Roland Garros which assures that he will lose rankings points and will have a smaller lead. In fact, his decision to not play the Wimbledon warm up Queens and Wimbledon further solidifies the likelihood that he will lose his number one ranking.



The injury, certainly cannot go unnoticed, but it is unfair to take away from other players. That is to say, you can’t dismiss people like Sodering whom almost beat Nadal at Wimbledon a couple years in an uncomfortable, icy 5 set match. And, is it not conceivable that the guy with 14 majors could beat Rafa?

If you go out there and play you are deemed ok to play. It’s ungentlemanly to use injuries as an excuse. “Yeah you won, but my head hurt so….” That’s unfair. Nadal has a winning record against EVERYONE on clay. He never ever lost at the French Open. So, inevitably he should lose right? You can’t always win and are bound to have slipups.

Then, there is young Andy Murray the #3 player in the world whom is my pick to win the tournament. Murray is extraordinarily uninteresting from a personality standpoint, but his game is even more uninteresting. Murray is the quintessential counterpuncher and simply does not make mistakes. Murray is steady off of both wings and can turn defensive to offense at the blink of an eye. In addition to that, he has a tremendous amount of confidence and has beaten most everyone. So, he knows he can do it, it is just a matter of whether or not he will do it in his home, U.K. I think that this is the year for Murray to win. Put it like this…if he gets to the final I don’t see him losing it. That being said, it is not guaranteed due to the pressure of playing at home and I guy that is known as Roger aka FedEx.


THE CONTENDERS.


#5 Juan Martin DelPotro is Argentianian but not the stereotypical Argentinian. DelPotro has game that works on every surface. He is tall, lanky, young, and believes he can win. He can use his height to create angles, pop, and action on his serve. In addition to that, he can use his height to volley at the net. DelPotro’s youth suggests that his body is fresh and able to do things that the “old” guys like Fed, Roddick, Hewitt, Blake, and Davydenko. But, this youth too may also be a downfall for DelPotro. He’s so young and relatively inexperienced and the moment may be too big for him. After all, Wimbledon is a huge tournament and you can’t fought the guy for being happen to be there and a part of something so big. If he does well, good, if he doesn’t…that’s not so good, but still. It’s Wimbledon.



The #4 player in the world is Novak Djokovic, Nole, is certainly a talent, but he struggles in the mental aspect of the game. Djokovic is known within tennis to be mentally weak and fragile, and he openly acknowledges that he has mental struggles during matches and has lost matches because of the mental component. Nole has stated that at times he didn’t believe in himself, has been overly negative, and gotten to down on himself. In addition to that Nole has a reputation of quiting These are two reputations that no matter how talented you are will follow you around and weigh on you. He is what he is and he hasn’t played well since his crushing semifinal defeat to Nadal in Madrid. LeBron James is currently on 60 Minutes right now and said that the strongest part of his game is his mental game. Not so much for Nole…


James Blake and Andy Roddick the U.S.’s only hope. Roddick has had great success at Wimbledon and under normal circumstances would have won 2 titles at Wimbledon had he not played in the era of Roger. Blake plays so so flat and has a game that is best described as high risk-high reward. It’s not dependable, but it can be lethal.

Jo Wilfried Tsonga, is very…very good, but he has had strange injury problems and seems to not play to his potential consistently. It is impossible to know when Tsonga will tap into his boatload of potential and play well. Some tournaments he is unstoppable and some tournaments he is…stoppable.

#11 Nikolay Davydenko is probably my favorite of all the proverbial sleepers. He is crazy fast, has a ridiculous amount of experience, and plays big despite his small stature. Davydenko is 5-10 150lbs at best…at best, but he cannot and will not be pushed around the court. He is a model of consistency and is the most dependable non big name player in the game.




SLEEPERS


Robin Soderling is more than just a lucky French Open finalist. He has game, a ton of potential, and the mental fortitude and capabilities to win. He should get atleast to the round of 16.

Feliciano Lopez is Spanish only in name. He does not particularly play well on clay and plays well on hardcourts and grass surfaces. He is not the stereotypical Spanish/European counterpuncher and packs a tremendous amount of power on his groundstrokes and can volley well which is good on grass.

Wimbledon is a colossal tournament. It is soaked in tradition and history and most every serious tennis professional wants to win this tournament. Not only is it arguably the most important tournament in the world it is probably the most difficult tournament to win because of its uniqueness. No one grows up playing on the surface, there are very few opportunities to play and practice on the surface and the surface is so drastically different than all the other surfaces. Of course some players games are suited for the surface, but most players go into the tournament with practically no recent, relevant play on grass.

Sporty nation, I am not a gambling man….But, if I were…I’d place money on Andy Murray and Roger Federer to win. They both may not meet in the finals, but I can’t come up with a reasonable circumstance that would have one of them not win the tournament. I just can’t. Stay classy and get some rest…this is going to be an amazing two weeks. This is my Minority Report.